Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A 0232Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE FURTHER EROSION OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPEDES THE OUTFLOW.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ON THE DECLINE...WITH 77 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES...AND DATA-T NUMBERS 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 75 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. LATE IN
THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS
SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/3. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
WITHIN THE MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A HIGH SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM
TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 13.6N 131.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.7N 131.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.2N 132.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.7N 132.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.4N 133.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 138.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N 140.5W    30 KT
 
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