ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT DISORGANIZATION OF THE OUTER BANDS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 2038Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY CONFIRMED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. IT APPEARS...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HURRICANE JOVA...AND IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KENNETH'S PATH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. AFTER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD OF MEANDERING WITHIN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KENNETH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 3 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID- LEVEL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A MID-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.6N 130.9W 80 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 13.7N 131.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 14.1N 131.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 14.7N 132.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 15.3N 133.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 17.2N 135.3W 40 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 137.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 02:40:22 UTC