ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICT A CLEAR 25 NM EYE...AND AN EXPANSION OF THE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE SIZE EXPANSION OVER THE TWO QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS...AS THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS AN EARLIER...ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.2N 128.2W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W 100 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 02:40:21 UTC