ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT KENNETH HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL DEFINED... BUT CLOUD-FILLED EYE...WITH INTENSE OUTER RAINBANDS EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH AGREES WITH THE COUPLED GFDL AND THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SITUATED BETWEEN HURRICANE JOVA TO THE WEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR 135W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.3N 125.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 03:10:20 UTC