ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WELL DEFINED BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.0 FROM AFWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0210Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE DATA...AND IS SET AT 70 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE CYCLONE MAY BE PRODUCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISRUPTING KENNETH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TAKE KENNETH TO 85 KT AT 24-36 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO 60 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE... AND IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 96 AND 120 HOURS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.0N 122.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 123.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 13.5N 125.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 127.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 130.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 10:10:18 UTC