ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 WELL DEFINED BANDING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT THE OUTER BANDING ELSEWHERE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A WARMING PHASE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT. A RESENT SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1729 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE NE OF CURRENT POSITION...AND AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT PACKAGE. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEREAFTER JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS... THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND DIGGING SE WITH TIME. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.5N 139.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 13.2N 141.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.8W 90 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 14.6N 143.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 17.3N 147.3W 70 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 149.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 20:55:20 UTC