ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTER BANDS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.2N 137.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W 90 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W 70 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 09:10:37 UTC