ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC...SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR BEYOND 72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/12. A STRONG MID- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNA...AND CONU. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.9N 133.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 12.6N 137.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 12.7N 138.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 143.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 147.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 03:10:16 UTC