ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION FOUND IN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WINDS...BUT HOW GOOD THESE ARE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/10. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HR... TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION NOT SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL... AND GFDN RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD... WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES A WESTWARD MOTION ALONG 12N. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE SLOWER MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO. THE GFDL IS ALONE IN TAKING THE SYSTEM UP TO A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL. IF THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 128.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.3N 131.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 133.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 13.3N 135.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 13.5N 140.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 147.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Sep-2005 20:40:19 UTC