ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005 T.D. TEN-E IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...WHICH SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS DESPITE PERSISTENT SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 30 KT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR...WITH THE GFDL DELAYING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN IT TURNS TEN-E INTO AN 81 KT HURRICANE...AND SHIPS WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN HOLDING STEADY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES 140W. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 265/12. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE GFS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THUS BEING STEERED MORE BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE BEYOND 72 HOURS AND DEVELOP A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 600-700 NM NE OF HAWAII. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SUGGESTS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E IS LESSENING AS THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE...FURTHER INCREASING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 14.1N 125.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 127.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 13.9N 129.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 13.8N 132.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 13.7N 135.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 147.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Sep-2005 08:40:16 UTC