Tropical Depression TEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005
 
A SMALL CDO HAS FORMED AND THERE IS A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE 2.0 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS INCREASING STABILITY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK.  THE GFDL
MODEL FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE.  GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
WESTWARD MOVEMENT.  CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10 ALTHOUGH THE
SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED IS SOMEWHAT FASTER.  TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH A TENDENCY FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND SLOWING BY DAYS 4-5.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS AND SIMILAR
THEREAFTER.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS JUST
DEVELOPED A LITTLE OVER 500 N MI TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TEN-E...AND IT SHOWS SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  SINCE
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 14.2N 122.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 13.9N 125.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 13.9N 127.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN