ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 CONVECTION WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY YESTERDAY EVENING UNTIL A NEW BUT FAIRLY SMALL BURST DEVELOPED AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A 02Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND ON THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT LOOKED VERY IMPRESSIVE RECENTLY... THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... WITH WEAK SHEAR RESULTING FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEPRESSION AND EXTENDING WESTWARD. SINCE OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE... WITH SSTS 27C OR GREATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS... SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL REACHING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8... WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 23N. THE FORWARD SPEED IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP AND THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IS A BIT NARROW. HOWEVER... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD HAWAII DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... AT AN INCREASING RATE OF FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 15.0N 115.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 15.2N 117.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.6N 119.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.9N 121.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.1N 124.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Sep-2005 08:55:18 UTC