Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE
SITUATED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND BENEATH A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD BE MOVING IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CLOSER TO COOLER
WATERS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/8. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
SITUATED WITHIN THE MID-LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
FORCING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.9N 114.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W    50 KT
 
 
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