ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005 GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY OF IRWIN SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 3.0 OR 45 KT. SIMILARILY...THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS AND CSU-CIRA AMSU MICROWAVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO AROUND 45 KT. BASED ON THESE PRESENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS IRWIN AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFDL AND FSSE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW 50 KT AND THEN WEAKEN IT TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH BEYOND 72 HRS. THE SHIPS MODEL PREDICTS IRWIN WILL REACH 50 KT IN THE 24-48 HR FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND AS THE GFDL AND FSSE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IT CAPS THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT IN THE FIRST 72 HRS AND EVENTUALLY DROPS IRWIN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE LATER PERIOD. IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT IRWIN OVER THE NEXT DAY...THEN FASTER WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS. IRWIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS MODELS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND GFS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACKS. FORECASTER SISKO/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.7N 110.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 17.8N 111.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 17.9N 113.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 117.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 121.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 124.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 31/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2005 20:40:15 UTC