ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LATEST GOES-10 AND GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0518Z AMSU PASS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.5 OR 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND UNCONTAMINATED 35-40 KT WINDS FROM A 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS...T.D. NINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IRWIN. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...PERHAPS ALLOWING IRWIN TO INTENSIFY TO A 50 KT STORM IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HOWEVER HOLDS IRWIN TO 50 KT BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK RELATIVE TO THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS WITH DISSIPATION STILL EXPECTED IN 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. IRWIN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON AN OVERALL WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS DISSIPATE IRWIN IN TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A CIRCULATION AND FORECASTS THE STORM TO MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.5N 108.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 111.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.2N 113.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 18.2N 119.1W 45 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2005 08:40:14 UTC