ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB...WHICH ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES. CONVECTION IS STILL A LITTLE THIN...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF HURRICANE HILARY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE GFDL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 7 KT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.2N 106.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.6N 107.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 112.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Aug-2005 20:40:14 UTC