| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane HILARY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005
 
HILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE MID LEVEL CENTER
CONSISTS OF RAGGED AREAS OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WHICH HAS
DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT THE
CYCLONE IS DECOUPLED FROM THE MEAGER CONVECTION...RAPID WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
HILARY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 315/8. THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36
HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A
REMNANT LOW. THIS IS AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS AND GUNA CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECASTER COBB/AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 23.0N 118.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 23.7N 119.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 24.6N 121.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 26.0N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN