ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005 A 0403Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE FEATURE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BAND NOW RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALSO REVEALS STABLE/DRYER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS...DEGENERATING FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.1N 117.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.8N 118.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.6N 120.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 23.3N 121.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 23.8N 123.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 27/0600Z 24.1N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2005 08:40:13 UTC