ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005 HILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE. IN ADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY IS WRAPPING DRY STABLE AIR AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE IN THE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA AVERAGE 4.0...65 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. HILARY IS CROSSING SUB 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECASTER COBB/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 20.5N 116.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 21.1N 117.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.9N 119.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 120.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2005 02:40:14 UTC