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Hurricane HILARY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005
 
THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHRINKING AND CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP. HOWEVER...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT
70-KNOT WINDS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND
WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 20.2N 116.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.9N 117.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.7N 119.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 24.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 24.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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