Hurricane HILARY
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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005
THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHRINKING AND CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP. HOWEVER...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT
70-KNOT WINDS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND
WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.2N 116.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 20.9N 117.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 21.7N 119.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z 24.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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