ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AN EARLIER 0418Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A 30 NM RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION REVEALS THAT THE WHITE BAND HAS NOW ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. NO CHANGES TO THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRYER AIR MASS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL...WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING IN 96 HOURS...DEGENERATING FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS HILARY MOVES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.4N 114.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 115.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.6N 118.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 123.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2005 08:40:14 UTC