ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 THE WEAKENING TREND NOTED ON THE LAST ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE HURRICANE STILL LACKING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A TRACK ACROSS COOLER WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF HILARY AND THE STORM MAY BEGIN ENTRAINING SOME OF THIS AIR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH STEADIER WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME AS HILARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AS THE GFDL. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY HAS SLOWED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...295/9. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND A MUCH WEAKER HILARY SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE GIVEN THE SAME GENERAL REASONING. BOTH THE 34 KT WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE SE QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM SHIP WITH CALL SIGN MHCO7. FORECASTER COBB/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.1N 113.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.6N 115.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.2N 116.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 119.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 126.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2005 02:55:13 UTC