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Hurricane HILARY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
 
THE BANDING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN A LITTLE THIN THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED THIS
EVENING WITHIN A 100 NM DIAMETER CDO.  AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE COME UP... WITH 75 KT AND 978 MB FROM CIMSS AT 2130Z... WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MORE RECENTLY... 00Z
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO T5.0...
WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 90 KT.  HILARY
IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 29C AND WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS... BUT NOT LESS THAN 26C UNTIL BEYOND 36 HOURS... ALL
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT APPEARS WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR
HILARY TO SOON REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS... WITH A MORE ACCELERATED DECLINE LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.

HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/16... AVERAGING OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS THROUGH SOME SMALL WOBBLES.  ALL OF THE MODELS NOW
AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH... THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WILL ONLY
SERVE TO SLOW HILARY DOWN AND NOT CAUSE IT TO RECURVE.  HOWEVER...
THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST
HILARY WILL MOVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS... AND IT ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
MOTION.  THIS FORECAST TAKES A MUCH WEAKENED HILARY WESTWARD IN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 17.7N 109.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.6N 110.8W   100 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 113.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W    95 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N 116.3W    85 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 118.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W    30 KT
 
 
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