ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 THE BANDING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN A LITTLE THIN THIS AFTERNOON... BUT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED THIS EVENING WITHIN A 100 NM DIAMETER CDO. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME UP... WITH 75 KT AND 978 MB FROM CIMSS AT 2130Z... WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO T5.0... WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 90 KT. HILARY IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 29C AND WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... BUT NOT LESS THAN 26C UNTIL BEYOND 36 HOURS... ALL WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR HILARY TO SOON REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS... WITH A MORE ACCELERATED DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/16... AVERAGING OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THROUGH SOME SMALL WOBBLES. ALL OF THE MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH... THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WILL ONLY SERVE TO SLOW HILARY DOWN AND NOT CAUSE IT TO RECURVE. HOWEVER... THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST HILARY WILL MOVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... AND IT ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. THIS FORECAST TAKES A MUCH WEAKENED HILARY WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 17.7N 109.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 18.6N 110.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 19.5N 113.1W 100 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 20.6N 116.3W 85 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Aug-2005 03:10:10 UTC