ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT HILARY HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. LATEST AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HILARY TO 90 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ERODED ON ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED SATES. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK BUT THEY ALL KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY THE GFDN...WHICH IS THE BASICALLY THE GFDL USING THE NOGAPS MODEL AS A BACKGROUND...TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD OVER BAJA. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND JUST NORTH OF HILARY REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Aug-2005 02:40:11 UTC