ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 30 KT AT 0000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A CLUSTER SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THERE IS ALSO A WARM SPOT IN INFRARED IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT IT IS TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS AN EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HILARY WITH 35 KT WINDS. HILARY IS MOVING BETWEEN 280-285 DEGREES AT 13-14 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR 48-72 HR...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD HILARY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR POSSIBLY EVEN NORTHWARD. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF TRACK MODELS DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH. THE 120 HR POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE MORE EASTWARD UKMET AND ECMWF. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS CALL FOR HILARY TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY MOTION OVER COLDER WATER AND GRADUAL WEAKENING. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL...AN EXPERIMENTAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 70% CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HR. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HILARY COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON A STRONGER SYSTEM...CLIMATOLOGY...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOWING A LARGE ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.7N 98.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 14.0N 100.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 14.5N 103.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 15.4N 106.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Aug-2005 02:55:10 UTC