ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY... AND A 0226Z SSMI OVERPASS... CONTINUE TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE NEAREST CONVECTION... WHICH IS EXTREMELY LIMITED... IS ABOUT 50 N MI TO THE WEST... SO EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT... AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. PERHAPS IN PART BECAUSE IT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE CONVECTION TO ITS WEST... THE CENTER OF GREG APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION... ESTIMATED AT 270/2. THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP... LITERALLY... BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A GENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION... APPARENTLY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH NARROW LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WHICH IS NOT AS FAST OR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE MODELS. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION... AND SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... NO INTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED... DESPITE THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL FORECAST. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEPRESSION MIGHT NOT EVEN SURVIVE MUCH LONGER. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.4N 115.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 09:10:10 UTC