Tropical Storm GREG

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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
 
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION. BECAUSE
THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME DISORGANIZED THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER...ONLY
SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WILL RESULT IN RE-STRENGTHENING. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SINCE BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSIFY GREG.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEADERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...GREG SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF TE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 14.5N 115.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 118.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 122.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 130.5W    65 KT
 
 
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