ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY OF GREG STILL SHOWS A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS NORTHERLY SHEAR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER WAS FULLY EXPOSED...BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY FLARE UP NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE 2.5 AND FROM SAB ARE 2.0 SO THE SYSTEM IS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM. A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE DOES HAVE 35 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS SAME QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INFORMATION. THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS GREG AT 35 KT AND SLOWLY WORKS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT BY 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FSSE AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL DEPICTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY SCENARIO BY DEVELOPING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HRS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEANTIME. BY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES BRING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEYOND 96 HRS...THIS IS CONSERVATIVE APPROACH COMPARED TO THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM TRACK GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVES GREG SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERN MOST OUTLIER IN THE GROUP. BEYOND 36 HRS...THE TRACK TURNS WEST AND REMAINS SO UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONU...GUNS AND GUNA. THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS EARLY IN THE FORECAST YIELD A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT A GENERAL LONG TERM WEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.5N 114.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 117.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 14.0N 119.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 127.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 20:55:11 UTC