ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF GREG. THE CENTER IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN SINCE CENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB DIFFER BY 4 TENTHS OF A DEGREE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. BASED ON PREVIOUS SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM... AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MICROWAVE FIXES... THE OFFICIAL POSITION TENDS TOWARD THE SAB POSITION. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL CENTERS ARE ALSO MIXED...BUT GENERALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE SHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 50 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MAKE GREG A HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES MAKE GREG A HURRICANE BEYOND 36 HOURS... BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN FUTURE ADVISORIES AS GREG STRUGGLES IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTWARD IN TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL. THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER FROM THE 12Z RUN TAKES A HUGE SOUTH AND EAST TURNAROUND... AN UNREALISTIC RADICAL SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY... A LOWER CONFIDENCE IS PLACED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH UTILIZE THE GFS TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK MOVES GREG IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS... WHICH CONSISTS OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACKS. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 14.5N 113.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.6N 114.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.6N 115.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 117.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 20:55:12 UTC