ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GREG CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND ARE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS. IT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA WAS GOING TO FORCE GREG TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BEHIND FERNANDA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP GREG ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF GREG. IN FACT...THESE MODELS SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT GREG WILL STAY OVER WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS INDICATED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 13.8N 110.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 20:40:09 UTC