ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A LOT SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF FERNANDA. BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NAMED GREG. SINCE THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT STRENGHTENING...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. GREG APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS THE AS INDICATED BY MODELS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA SHOULD INDUCE A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS TO RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 13.6N 110.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.0N 112.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 114.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 22.0N 122.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 124.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 14:40:10 UTC