ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FERNANDA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT AND FERNANDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VERY DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT... WITH DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT WEAKENING TRENDS...DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR SOONER. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER 255/8. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THE UKMET AND THE DEEP LAYERED BAM ARE THE TWO OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.0N 134.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 135.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 17/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 20:40:12 UTC