ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE COULD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...DESPITE THE COOL SSTS...FERNANDA APPEARS TO HAVE HAD RE-DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FERNANDA SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECT OF COOL WATERS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES AGAIN WARMER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN KEEPS THE INTENSITY STEADY. FERNANDA HAS BEEN FORCED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 18.5N 130.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 140.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 14:40:12 UTC