ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO BARELY MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. LATEST DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FIX. ALSO...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE FROM AFWA IS 3.9 AND FROM TAFB IS 3.7 RESPECTIVELY. OBJECTIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE CLOSE TO 987 MB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS DECREASED TO 65 KT. IN ADDITION...WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A 1436Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE FSSE...GFDL AND SHIPS YIELDS A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FERNANDA WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR FERNANDA TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY ABOVE 35-40 KT AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER SSTS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INTENSITY IN THE LATER PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED IF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THEY DEPICT FERNANDA MOVING SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST. THESE FEATURES ARE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 19.3N 127.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.7N 130.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 17.7N 134.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 20:40:12 UTC