ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...FERNANDA'S INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT...AS THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DECREASING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER WESTERLIES SLOWLY INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN GREG AND FERNANDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 18.9N 125.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.1N 126.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.1N 128.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 18.7N 130.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 18.1N 131.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 17.2N 135.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 142.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 03:10:10 UTC