ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A 75 KT HURRICANE. A NICE EYE IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DMSP SSMI DATA SHOW A MORE SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM OVERALL. TAFB AND SAB REPORT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.5 AND THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS ALSO 4.5 SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER... FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SO FERNANDA HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN FERNANDA TO A TROPICAL STORM AFTER 24 HOURS... AND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IT FURTHER WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER 24 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/8. AGAIN... THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS... THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFDL TRACKS. IN COMPARISON... THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND NOGAPS IS MORE NORTH. THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT IS MINOR AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER SISKO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.7N 124.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.2N 127.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 20:55:12 UTC