Hurricane FERNANDA

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HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GETTING
MORE RAGGED ON IR SATELLITE PICTURES. HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO
BE SOLIDLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 65 KT IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SAB. THE CYCLONE
HAS LIKELY PEAKED WITH COOLING SSTS IN ITS PATH AND THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS AND THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO NEARLY PARALLEL THE 25C ISOTHERM.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS BEYOND 2 DAYS
WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR CYCLONES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 25C.   

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7. FERNANDA HAS PASSED THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD NUDGE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON THEN TO THE WEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.
IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD ALSO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. THE NOGAPS IS
A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...KEEPING A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWEST BECAUSE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WEAKENS THE HIGH
MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
BECAUSE OF THE UNREASONABLE HIGHER STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST BY NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ACCELERATES THE
DECAYING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 16.9N 121.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.4N 122.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N 123.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N 124.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.6N 125.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.8N 127.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 133.5W    30 KT
 
 
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