ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH IMPRESSIVE INNER AND OUTER SPIRAL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INNER CORE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT. SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE PROVIDED BY A MID TO UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE UPPER LOW CAUSING FERNANDA TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN THE NOGAPS DEVIATES TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE GUNA AND CONU MODEL BLENDS AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.3N 120.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 122.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 18.7N 124.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W 50 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 02:55:10 UTC