ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005 THERE IS A SMALL ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF FERNANDA. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 KT...HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE WATER WILL BE WARM FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS. WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF FERNANDA...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FERNANDA SHOULD BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL CREATE A WEAKER THAN NORMAL STEERING FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR ABOUT THREE DAYS. BY THAT POINT...FERNANDA SHOULD HAVE BYPASSED THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN FERNANDA WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER...BUT ITS TRACK APPEARS TO BE CONTAMINATED BY THE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE BEHIND FERNANDA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.3N 117.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.8N 120.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.4N 121.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 18.5N 124.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 18.5N 128.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Aug-2005 08:55:11 UTC