ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY PRESENTATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOUD PATTERN HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THAT THE HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. IMPRESSIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL AS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. IN VIEW OF THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW IS BEING CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM CENTRAL MEXICO AND INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT BY A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAY 3. AFTERWARDS...AN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...UKMENT AND THE GFDL. THE NHC FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SLOWER TO CONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 14.8N 116.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Aug-2005 03:10:09 UTC