ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED AT T2.0 FROM SAB AND T1.5 FROM TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO DATA T NUMBERS OF T2.5 FROM SAB AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. THE 1826Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT WINDS IN ITS INFLOW BAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 30 KTS AT THIS TIME. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS...WHICH SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES BY THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE SHORT TERM TRACK HAS SHIFTED LEFT/ MORE WESTWARD DUE TO THE DEPRESSIONS PERSISTENT WESTWARD COURSE. THE CURRENT TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS/BAM SUITE/CANADIAN/GFDL MODELS...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF CLIPER AND EXTRAPOLATION AND CLOSEST TO THE UKMET. THE 12Z GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST BY DROPPING A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY..SLOWED DOWN THE TRACK FROM CONTINUITY...WHICH IS ALSO A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS THE VERY SLOW GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS SHORTLY...AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS IS STRONGER THAN CONTINUITY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED/NAMED...THE EASTERN PACIFIC WOULD REMAIN TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE...BUT STILL TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE PACE OF THE SLOW 2001/2002/2004 HURRICANE SEASONS. TPC/NHC WILL TAKE OVER WRITING ADVISORIES ON THIS CYCLONE AT 03Z. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.1N 115.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.6N 119.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.8N 123.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 16.8N 126.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 17.7N 129.9W 35 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 18.6N 133.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 09-Aug-2005 20:40:09 UTC