ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 BANDING FEATURES CONTINUED TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... BRINGING DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z UP TO 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT EUGENE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER...AND EUGENE HAS ALREADY PASSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM. CONSEQUENTLY...NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS...WHICH CALL FOR A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOWER DECAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN MORE WEST THAN THAT. EUGENE WAS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT NOT THIS QUICKLY. SHOULD THIS MOTION BE MAINTAINED THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL NOT REACH BAJA...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MOTION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO BE CERTAIN THAT THE TURN HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL BASICALLY NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE PRECEDING FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 20.0N 109.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 21.2N 111.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 113.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 22.6N 115.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jul-2005 20:40:07 UTC