ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 DORA HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES...AND THERE IS ALSO A LARGE RANGE IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING ALSO REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUE TO STEER DORA WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE BAM MODELS CONSENSUS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR. THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ANY OF WHICH COULD BRIEFLY SPIN UP THE CIRCULATION TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLD WATER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.5N 105.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.9N 106.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 19.2N 108.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 19.6N 110.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Jul-2005 20:55:04 UTC