ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 CONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT AT 12Z FOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5/35KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THEN. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AT 35 KT... AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DORA HAS ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT DORA WILL BRIEFLY RECOVER AND PERHAPS GAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TO NEAR 45 KT AT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS DORA PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING ALSO REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE DORA TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN BUT ALONG THE SAME HEADING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 18.3N 104.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 105.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 20.2N 109.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.6N 110.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Jul-2005 15:10:04 UTC