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Tropical Depression FOUR-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005
 
EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  TWO EARLIER PARTIAL TRMM AND SSM/I
OVERPASSES ALSO HELPED TO CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER WAS TUCKED
BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM
ACAPULCO DEPICTS THE STRONGEST OF THE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH DEPRESSION ARE DISSIPATING OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. 
HOWEVER...THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COLDEST TOPS SITUATED NEAR/ALONG THE COAST.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT FROM THE FIX AGENCIES.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE
BANDING DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/6. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A
PLAYER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE
NORTHWESTWARD...ALONG OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HAS INDUCED A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...PLACING IT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE RIGHT
OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE IF
NOT OVER THE COAST...CAUSING A WEAKENING TREND.  THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH THE
ASSUMPTION OF A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER DAY 3 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 15.9N  99.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 100.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.3N 101.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 18.1N 102.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 18.9N 104.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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