ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WHAT LITTLE THERE IS REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT BEATRIZ HAS FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C SSTS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CYCLONE DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CURRENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ULTIMATELY PULLED SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ANTICIPATES THAT BEATRIZ WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE INTERACTING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.2N 111.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 25/0000Z 17.7N 114.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.7N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Dec-2005 17:25:26 UTC