ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING NEAR 45 KT. A TRMM OVERPASS NEAR 07Z DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER BENEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... WHICH HAS DECREASED SINCE 09Z. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 295/12 AND SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM LATER TODAY...AS IT ENTERS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TIME HAS JUST ABOUT RUN OUT FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DECREASE IN CONVECTION A WEAKENING TREND COULD BE IMMINENT. SHIPS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO ONLY FOR ONLY 12 MORE HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN...AND THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD THEN DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.9N 109.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.4N 111.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 17.9N 113.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 18.2N 114.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Jun-2005 14:55:02 UTC