ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP TO 3.5...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT...AT 06Z...THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISHED. MOREOVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS RAGGED-LOOKING WITH NO DISCERNABLE BANDING. CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS VISIBLE FIXES SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. ASSUMING THIS...AND USING THE SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ONE OBTAINS A T-NUMBER CLOSER TO 3.0. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IS ACKNOWLEDGED IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE CLOSING SOON AS THE STORM HEADS FOR COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA BREAKS DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED TO A DRIFT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TURN SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN 4-5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO A WEAK REMNANT LOW THAT WILL BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.3N 109.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.8N 111.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 17.4N 113.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 114.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Jun-2005 08:40:02 UTC