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Tropical Storm BEATRIZ (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005
 
A HEALTHY BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS PRODUCING A NICE ROUND
CDO-LIKE FEATURE. ROTATION OF THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD PLACE THE CENTER
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...BUT A 25 KT NORTHWEST WIND FROM SHIP 9VVY
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD MASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
IS NORTH OF 15.5N...BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 22/2121Z ALSO IMPLIES A POSITION A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
45 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 997.7 MB AT
2120Z. AFWA CAME IN WITH A 65 KT ESTIMATE...AND BEATRIZ COULD BE
CLOSER TO 50 OR EVEN 55 KT NOW...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE
IF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS AND IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONINGS. BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. AFTER PASSING
OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS BY 36 HOURS...BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND THEN BE STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SINCE 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF
BEATRIZ MAY BE MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE CDO-LIKE
FEATURE. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BEATRIZ
COULD PEAK IN ABOUT 18 HOURS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT
REACHES SUB-26C SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS BEATRIZ TO 52 KT IN 18 HOURS
THROUGH 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 15.8N 107.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 109.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.9N 111.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N 113.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 117.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     28/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

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